In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.
Bond market reactions to geopolitical risks
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the recently produced report on geopolitical analysis and historical experience of markets and the Fed during prior events. George emphasizes that it’s early days to draw any strong conclusions, but he is comfortable with his views that it all comes down to how financial conditions evolve ahead.
The invasion of Ukraine’s implications for JPY-denominated assets
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects market uncertainties caused by the Ukraine invasion and discusses JPY cross-asset pricing and JPY cross-asset flow from the January JSDA data. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
Broader U.S. fixed income still in the cross hairs
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the implications of the break above 2% on the 10-year Treasury and how sustainable is the move in the near-term versus longer-run for the U.S. markets and the economy. He also discusses how U.S. credit is in the cross hairs of higher rates and risk market volatility.
Nuances of BoJ fixed rate buying operations and cross-border securities flows
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the nuances of the BoJ’s fixed rate buying operation as well as the attributes of securities investing flows from last week’s Balance of Payment data. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
A regime change in the Agency MBS prepayment landscape and the implications for Agency MBS investors
In today’s episode, Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discusses the regime change he has witnessed in Agency MBS prepayment during the most recent refinance wave and its implications for investors. Glenn discusses its impact on option adjusted spreads, MBS option costs, and nominal spreads, as well as the risk to his 2022 issuance outlook as a result of a higher 30-year mortgage rate.
A make or break moment for U.S. rates?
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on what has been driving the U.S. bond market post the FOMC meeting. The hawkish pivot has gone global post the recent ECB shift and BoE hawkishness. This has resulted in a multi-sigma move in Euro rates, which are impacting U.S. rates. George takes us through a few scenarios around the Treasury auctions and the upcoming CPI report.
BoJ monetary and MoF fiscal operations put pressure on JGBs and JPY basis into fiscal year end
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the recent sell-off in the JGB market including the impact of monetary and fiscal operations. He also shares his outlook for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
Tokyo Cross-Currency Repo Market Structure and nuances to BoJ Monetary Policy
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the attributes of cross-currency JPY repo trading in Tokyo and discusses BoJ Monetary Policy. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
2022 Global Markets & Economic Outlook: Transitioning Corporate Strategy for a Post-Pandemic World
The MUFG Capital Markets Strategy Group recently published their 2022 Global Markets & Economic Outlook: Transitioning Corporate Strategy for the Post-Pandemic World. In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses key themes from the report including the regime change underway in the economy and markets and the remarkable level of corporate activity taking place as company strategy pivots to investing for a post-pandemic world.
Exploring FCI and real rates plus a quick January FOMC preview
In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on current market volatility and concerns over broad financial conditions tightening. George takes us through the view that the movement in real rates hold the key to what happens next for financial conditions and thus markets. And lastly, George gives us a quick rundown on what to expect at the upcoming January FOMC meeting.
Learn more
For more information,
contact us.
John Cooke
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
1-212-405-7353
John.Cooke@mufgsecurities.com
George Goncalves
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
1-212-405-6687
George.Goncalves@mufgsecurities.com
Takahiro Sekido
Chief Japan Strategist
Tokyo, Japan
1-81-3-6214-4150
Takahiro_Sekido@mufg.jp
Glenn Schultz
Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy
Chicago, IL
1-212-405-6521
Glenn.Schultz@mufgsecurities.com
The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.