Global Markets Podcasts

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves reviews the market price action post the strong July NFP report and what to look out for in the upcoming CPI report. At a minimum, the latest NFP report has made market participants put the “Fed pivot” concept on the backburner as the ongoing robust job growth, along with higher wage inflation, suggests that the Fed will have to lean harder to tightening monetary conditions to weaken aggregate demand.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross-border security flows and changes to the monetary base during the month of July. He also shares his view on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves explains that the broader markets are increasingly more concerned about recessions and growth versus just focused on inflation, however the Fed has not taken its eye off of the elevated levels of inflation. Thus it’s too early for markets to force a pivot and rally on bad news, as if the Fed would come to the rescue and stop hiking and/or ease. We think a couple more hikes are in store for 2H22 and that should keep curves inverted and eventually weigh on other asset classes, too. We briefly highlighted our views from a joint publication with the capital markets team on a piece called “Mixed Signals: An Assessment of US Recession Risk in the Year Ahead” reviewing our take on recessions and the signals we use to assess them.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews markets in July including the BoJ’s July Monetary Policy Board meeting and discusses potential JPY trading triggers for August. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s podcast, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on his latest views. George believes that market participants are in a tug-of-war on the inflation versus recession debate and are hoping that central banks will start to pivot their focus to recession risks versus inflation. Even if that is what will ultimately happen, George feels that it’s too soon for that to be the prevailing theme because the Fed is only now getting toward neutral levels of rates.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his July outlook for JPY cross assets and Japanese investor behavior based on the June Tankan survey, and reviews BoJ and MoF money flow data for June. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his views ahead of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting. He also discusses inflation in Japan and shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In this episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses recent prepayment data and shares his views on valuation across the agency MBS coupon stack. He also reviews the recent slowdown in the U.S. housing market and the outlook for the housing market against the backdrop of a higher 30-year mortgage rate. Finally, Glenn takes listeners through the outlook for agency MBS issuance for the second half of the year and the mortgage basis.

In today’s podcast, we mark-to-market the latest macro developments in the U.S. and recent price action, as well as briefly review some of the inflation concepts covered in our recent monthly strategy report. We also touch upon what to expect from markets post the June CPI report. In our view, if the inflation report does not show any signs of price increases slowing, then a high reading may trigger a more lasting risk-off as investors potentially throw in the towel on inflation moderating.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses implications for financial markets from Upper House election results, the impact on the Bank of Japan’s yield control operations, and securities investing flows in May and June. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.