Global Markets Podcasts

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses recent media reports about BoJ leadership nominations and shares his outlook across markets in February. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses what to watch during the fiscal year 2023 ordinary Diet session. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, argues that the latest price action, as positive and powerful to the upside that it has been, has skewed perception of the macro outlook. Granted, it’s likely that some positive factors – mostly the weather in Europe and contained energy, plus China reopening – have improved the outlook, these alone won’t be enough to overcome the cumulative effective of global central bank tightening and ongoing draining of liquidity via various forms of QT. In the end, it’s likely yet again another short-term bear market rally in risk assets. 

Meanwhile, rates markets continue to defy the Fed and where policy rates will eventually stabilize at. These inconsistencies matter and could also drive Fed thinking. Chair Powell might remind investors that their policies work through tightening financial conditions. We expect a “hawkish” 25bps hike at the next meeting. 
 

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido analyses investing flows and sentiment among Japanese and foreign investors based on the latest USTIC and JSDA data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the January BoJ policy meeting, shares his outlook for monetary policy going forward, and discusses cross-border securities investing flows during December. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz reviews December’s remittance data and addresses the question: are we in the winter of prepayment or are the slow speeds just turnover? He also discusses relative value across the specified pool and derivative markets.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy still thinks it’s a macro-driven year ahead. The economic backdrop continues to worsen in the first half, and it’s possible that the recession hits sooner. The good news – U.S. inflation should continue to decline. By mid-year, the shift from inflation to growth concerns should result in a short-lived Federal Reserve (Fed) pause, and then easing by year-end. However, markets are already pricing to such an outcome on day one! The risk is that instead we get one last major sell-off at the start of 2023 as global rates rise (driven by other central banks – notably the BoJ and ECB along with supply concession). And we also think that risk markets (i.e. stocks) have yet to make their final low, too. While we wait to get clarity on the outlook for the economy, earnings, and risk assets, we make the case to dollar-cost average into bonds. We like L/T USTs/MBS on dips more so than credit, for now. For further information please also see the executive summary of our 2023 Macro2Markets Outlook titled Passing the Baton: A shift from inflation to growth concerns.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the December BoJ meeting, the monetary operations that followed, and what he expects going forward. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz wraps up 2022 prepayment and reviews our major themes for the year and how they played out versus our expectations. Looking forward into 2023, Glenn discusses the outlook for prepayment, along with the PO value of the discount agency MBS sector and its place in investor portfolios.

In this episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves walks us through what we collectively observed from the second weak inflation print in a row, and what to expect ahead on that front. George views the markets have this tendency to pull forward returns, and the latest price action is emblematic of such performance. Finally, George gives his base case on what to look for at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Bottom line, although with each subsequent FOMC meeting we are getting closer to the end of the hiking cycle, we do not expect chair Powell to signal as such.