Global Markets Podcasts

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the April Bank of Japan meeting, discusses Japanese life insurance company investment plans and shares potential triggers for Japanese markets in May. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the Lower House elections and shares his outlook for the Bank of Japan meeting this week. He also shares his views on spot Dollar / Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode and ahead of Earth Day this weekend, Dr. Tobi Petrocelli, MUFG Head of Sustainability & Transition Finance Strategy, and Beth Gilroy, Deputy Head of Sustainability & ESRM, discuss how MUFG is helping to resolve environmental and social issues focusing on combating climate change and supporting transition financing. We also review two key publications – our recently released MUFG Progress Report, which illustrates how we as a global institution are moving towards carbon neutrality and our MUFG Transition Whitepaper, which was published last October, in which we share our sustainability views globally and summarize the decarbonization efforts of Japanese companies as well as the energy policy of Japan.   

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, is encouraged that stability has returned to the broader financial marketplace and the banks in particular, but he believes that it’s too soon to say the coast is clear. In his view, without a new negative catalyst, it’s understandable to see markets and policymakers return to their concerns over where we are in the inflation versus growth debate. And it’s true that vols in the broader asset classes have receded from the extreme levels seen in March. The concern is that after having witnessed some of the biggest moves in history, they can always come back and be disruptive once more. We think the markets have through the process of having less conviction on the macro outlook become a bit complacent as they wait for the next catalyst. However, we might need to wait until the conclusion of the upcoming Fed & ECB meetings in May before we get some clarity on where we truly are in the economic and liquidity cycle. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling concerns are growing and wait in the wings once the central bank meetings conclude. We remain cautious heading into summer.

The Yen has weakened at the start of Japan’s new fiscal year while Yen rates and Yen cross currency basis have lacked momentum. The assassination attempt on Prime Minister Fumio Kishida over the weekend was shocking but did not elicit a major reaction in Japanese financial markets. 

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews recent price action and cross border security flows in March, as well as changes in market structure of the Tokyo market. He also shares his views on spot USDJPY, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
 

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz, provides our estimate for turnover across the 2023 spring/summer home selling season and the implication of our turnover outlook on relative value across the coupon stack. He also discusses the near, intermediate term outlook for the agency mortgage basis against the backdrop of the SVB and Signature Bank failures, along with FDIC liquidation of the securities portfolio.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido review JPY assets and securities flows in March and also looks ahead to triggers for April. He also shares his views on spot USDJPY, Yen rates, and Yen basis.

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido evaluates the current state of the market after the outbreak of financial unease in Europe and the United States, and discusses US TIC and JSDA securities investment flow data. He also shares his views on spot USDJPY, Yen rates, and Yen basis.

Japan’s markets have reacted to the banking issues in the U.S. and Europe in classic financial crisis/risk aversion fashion, with JPY rallying, JPY rates falling, and JPY basis widening. Japanese investors are passively watching the credit jitters in the U.S. and European banking sector, but they are being impacted considerably, given their sizeable stock overseas assets suggesting they will be monitoring global financial markets closely. 

In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his views regarding the credit concerns in the U.S. and European financial sector and his outlook for JPY cross assets and discusses the collaboration among six central banks for boost USD liquidity funding. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
 

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to discuss the new risks facing financial markets and how the Fed will handle the current inflation backdrop, while dealing with renewed bank issues. George reviews two of his recent reports, one focused on the financial system’s plumbing and liquidity dynamics and the other on his March FOMC preview. Listeners will recall that our house view has been that the Fed can raise rates as high as they like, but the criteria to stop matters more than where they settle at, while at the same time the more they hike, the likelihood that they break something in the markets or the economy or both where high.

We argue that the criteria to stop hiking is surfacing and that the hiking cycle may be close to being over. The tightening of financial conditions and credit standards post the recent bank failures, along with the long and variable lags of the prior hikes in the system (which are clearly leaving a dent on the financial markets) will likely result in the upcoming recession being ushered in sooner. This makes the upcoming FOMC meeting decision a much closer call as a result.