In this weekly podcast series, John Herrmann, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, along with other subject matter experts within our business, discuss the forces, indicators, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and year ahead.
Might an unthinkable level of COVID-19 infections catalyze further fiscal and monetary stimulus?
November 19, 2020
In this episode, MUFG’s U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, finds that the complexion of risk factors remains supportive of his models forecast for real GDP growth over the 4th Quarter, of near +6.00% q/q annualized, or near -2.10% on a 4q/4q year-over-year rate. However, the very same factors point to a potentially worrisome outcome for 1st Quarter’s real GDP growth rate, of weaker than +1.00% q/q annualized – but with some risk of an economic contraction. Again, it is ironic that the U.S. Congress can be united only by risk of a near unthinkable rate of community spread of COVID-19 (and its implications for risk of an economic contraction)! As this drama plays out, waiting in the wings, the members of the FOMC begin their review of the policy toolkit to decide how best to support, prolong, and enhance U.S. economic recovery.
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Upcoming changes to BoJ yield curve control, cross-border flows, and Japan’s GDP recovery
November 17, 2020
In this episode, MUFG’s Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, dissects the Jul-Sep GDP report and discusses its implications. He also reviews recent cross-border investment flows and shares his outlook for Dollar / Yen, Yen rate, and Dollar / Yen cross-currency basis.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
GDP forecast and the impact on delinquency rates and forbearance
November 11, 2020
In this episode, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, gives us an overview of the most recent prepayment report and how those numbers compare to our Katana machine learning model projections. He also discusses prepayment expectations on the 30-year 1.5 coupon, as well as the impact of the GDP forecast on delinquency rates and forbearance.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Demand for BoJ Dollar fund-supply operations disappears, the October BoJ meeting, and the outlook for FX and rates following the U.S. election
November 10, 2020
In this episode, MUFG’s Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, analyzes the October monetary base data and discusses USD fund-supplying operations as well as the “Summary of Opinions” from the October BoJ meeting. He also updates his views for Dollar / Yen, yen rate, and Dollar / Yen cross-currency basis.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The October employment report, and what would a Republican Senate mean for Jay Powell?!
November 5, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the October employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. He also discusses the rebound in the broad economy in the context of the October FOMC meeting.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Japanese lifers return to JGBs while eyeing U.S. credit and global alternative investment opportunities
November 3, 2020
In this episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, discusses Japanese lifers’ investment plans for the second half of fiscal year 2020 and their implications on JGBs, Dollar/Yen, and Dollar/Yen cross-currency basis.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Seeking JGB, Samurai bond, Dollar / Yen cross-currency basis, and FX opportunities at the start of Suga’s inaugural extraordinary Diet session
October 27, 2020
In this episode, MUFG’s Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, discusses Suga administration’s policy challenges, the October BoJ meeting, and gives a Yen Samurai primary market update. He also details implications, and his views for Dollar / Yen, Dollar / Yen cross-currency basis, and Yen rate.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Next week’s GDP report to show a robust rebound in growth…but then what?
October 22, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, takes listeners through the details of his tracking estimate for 3Q-2020 GDP. He discusses his more medium-term outlook and the role fiscal stimulus plays. He also explores the implications of those forecasts on his investment thesis, the 2s30s yield curve steepener.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Optimism in the September BoJ Tankan survey, large buying of EUR-denominated bonds, and rotation into USD spread product
October 20, 2020
In this episode, MUFG’s Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, discusses Japanese companies’ views of the economy as memorialized in the September BoJ Tankan survey, cross-border flows, and his views for Dollar / Yen, Dollar / Yen cross-currency basis, and Yen rate.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Brace yourselves for another rapid decline in the unemployment rate
October 15, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews his revised unemployment rate forecast as well as discusses GDP and inflation forecasts. He also explores the implications of those forecasts on his investment thesis, the 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
U.S. election enters the final stretch
October 14, 2020
In this episode, Jordan Heiber, Deputy Representative in MUFG’s Washington DC Office, looks at the state of the race, the risk that we may not know the outcome on election night, and the policies and priorities that investors should expect from Washington in 2021.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
A jobs slowdown or just another Bureau of Labor Statistics mismeasurement?!
October 9, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews a mixed September employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate versus the actual results. He also puts this in perspective versus the 38% rebound in growth he's expecting to occur in the 3rd quarter and discusses the steepening of the 2s-30s Treasury yield curve towards 191.1 bps target over the coming eighteen months.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
What do samurai swords and prepayment speeds have in common?
October 8, 2020
In this episode, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, breaks down the impact of technology, the new adverse delivery fee, hardship forbearance, and delinquency buyout extension on prepayment rates going forward. He also dives into MUFG’s rate forecast and what this means for the 30-year mortgage rate going into 2021.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Another robust employment report? For how much longer?
October 1, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the September employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. He also discusses, more generally, why he's more optimistic on employment and growth than the consensus, the Fed, and other official forecasts.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Backtesting exchange-traded funds purchases under Abenomics for the benefit of “Suganomics”
September 29, 2020
In this episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, tests market reaction to the Bank of Japan’s exchange traded funds purchases during Abenomics and takes a look at USDJPY, JPY rates, and JPY basis as “Suganomics” enjoys its honeymoon period.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Is the Phillips curve dead in the Fed’s new monetary policy framework?
September 23, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, continues to try to enhance listeners’ understanding of the Fed's new framework.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Monetary policy with “employment as a broad based, inclusive goal”
September 17, 2020
In this episode MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, breaks down the September FOMC meeting in light of the Fed's new monetary policy framework and tells listeners what it means for his core strategic investment stance for a 2s-30s Treasury yield curve steepener.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
USDJPY, JPY rate, and JPY basis in the “Suga era”
September 15, 2020
In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses Japan’s new administration, cross-border flows, and his views on USDJPY and JPY rates and JPY basis.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Can employment gains drive the unemployment rate to a “six-handle” by year-end?
September 10, 2020
In this episode MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews the August employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate versus the actual results. He also explores the implications of the number on his outlook for the economy, the yield curve, and the Fed.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Japan’s monetary base, the Tokyo repo market, and cross-border flows ahead of quarter-end
September 9, 2020
In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses Japan’s monetary base, JPY fund supply and demand, the Tokyo repo market, cross-border flows, and his views on USDJPY and JPY rate and JPY basis.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Will the unemployment report trounce expectations, yet again?
September 3, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the August employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. He also explores the implications of those forecasts on his investment thesis, the 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
What happens when you take the “Abe” out of Abenomics?
September 1, 2020
In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses the impact of Abe’s resignation on markets and cross-border flows as well as updates of his view on the Yen, Yen rates, and Dollar/Yen cross-currency basis.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The FOMC’s growth projections are far too pessimistic, will they shift at this week’s virtual symposium?
August 26, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews this week’s virtual Jackson Hole Symposium and discusses what our model is currently forecasting. He also gives listeners an update on his core strategic investment stance of a 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Can the U.S. economy rebound +28.7% in Q3, yet still require a massive jolt of stimulus over the coming 18 months?
August 20, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews forecasts over the coming 12 months and beyond and tells listeners what these structural imbalances might ultimately require. He also offers more insights on the upcoming U.S. election and gives listeners an update on his core strategic investment stance of a 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Navigating the twists and turns of employment, growth, and the U.S. election.
August 13, 2020
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews July employment and Q2 GDP reports and tells listeners what these mean for the labor market and growth going forward. He also offers his take on the upcoming U.S. election and gives listeners an update on his core strategic investment stance of a 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The 2020 US Election Heats Up.
August 12, 2020
Please note this podcast was recorded prior to Joe Biden announcing Kamala Harris as his VP.
In this episode, Hana Rudolph, of MUFG’s Washington DC Representative Office, examines current dynamics of the 2020 election outlook: how Biden’s VP pick, the upcoming party conventions, and presidential debates could impact the race, and what investors should pay attention to in the months ahead.
If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.