Global Markets Podcasts

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s administration is only weeks old, but it is already clear the new administration will continue Abenomics and push for the structural reforms that were never enacted. The Tokyo markets underwent structural changes during the nearly eight years of Abenomics, and overseas investors have been making more JPY cross-currency arbitrage trades while Japanese companies and investors have been acquiring more overseas assets. What is in store for Tokyo markets under “Suganomics”? More locally, stock prices have dropped, and the JPY has strengthened recently as the coronavirus pandemic has flared up again in Europe. Speculation has been simmering in the market that Prime Minister Suga will dissolve the Lower House and hold a general election. What is in store for USDJPY, JPY rate, and USDJPY cross-currency basis?

In this episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, tests market reaction to the Bank of Japan’s exchange traded funds purchases during Abenomics and takes a look at USDJPY, JPY rates, and JPY basis as “Suganomics” enjoys its honeymoon period.

Tomorrow is the first live debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and marks five weeks until the U.S. election. History indicates television debates don’t have an integral influence on election results, but Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, gives his FX forecast for the week as he explains why if there was ever a year to buck this trend, this could be it.

With the markets pricing in the prospect for an unresolved election and a contested outcome, and not to mention the rocky road ahead for GBP as it grapples with ongoing UK-EU trade negotiations, the MUFG market research team share their trade ideas for what is set to be a volatile few months in the markets. 

Libya’s oil industry, all but shut down since January due to the civil conflict, is reopening – in parts. This re-entry of Libyan crude is theoretically a new bearish dynamic for global oil markets.

Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, examines the sustainability, magnitude and timeline of the prospect of higher supply from Libya into global oil markets and what this could signal for oil prices.

Over the past four weeks, the FOMC continues to deliver what appears to be a forceful, seminal shift in their monetary policy framework. The Committee has strengthened its maximum employment mandate, elevating its stature to be a vibrant, durable, broad-based, and inclusive one. 12 years of erroneous predictions has inclined the pragmatic Chair Powell to dispose of many of the features of the Phillips curve thinking within the Fed’s inflation models and to relegate it’s importance upon the indicator dashboard. This shifting of emphasis within the new framework likely may lead the U3 unemployment rate to decline all the way to 2.604% by year-end 2024 (a 100-year low!) – according to our models forecasts. Still, there remain many unanswered questions, but a deeper understanding of the new framework is a must for any investor.

In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, continues to try to enhance listeners’ understanding of the Fed's new framework.

A mix of cross-currents are threatening to turn the tide for the FX markets. COVID-19 is back in focus in the UK, with the growing likelihood of new lockdowns sending the pound into underperformance.

The threat of negative interest rates is also looming, and Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research for EMEA, gives his forecast for when these could be potentially implemented. Stateside, the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has opened a seat on the Supreme Court, giving way to an escalation in partisan politics. What does this mean for the dollar? Listen below for more.

The bar surrounding the peak in oil demand is rising with discussions this week on whether the peak in oil demand has already been reached, with prospects that global oil consumption possibly may never return to pre-pandemic levels.

Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, contextualises how increasing energy efficiency, the electrification of road transportation and climate change considerations are altering the contours of the oil industry and what this could signal for oil prices.

The FOMC recently concluded its first meeting under the new monetary policy framework announced less than a month ago. As expected, the meeting was a seminal one! Chair Powell and the rest of the Committee sent a powerful message that they will target inflation above 2% for "some time" to achieve its new "average" goal. That's significant, especially when maximum employment means more than just a low U3 unemployment rate. How is an investor to navigate these uncharted waters?

In this episode MUFG US Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, breaks down the September FOMC meeting in light of the Fed's new monetary policy framework and tells listeners what it means for his core strategic investment stance for a 2s-30s Treasury yield curve steepener.

It was only a little over a year ago that Emperor Naruhito acceded to the Chrysanthemum Throne, beginning the Reiwa era. This week marks yet another new period for Japan, following the election of Yoshihide Suga as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party this past weekend. Japan’s next Prime Minister will be announced on September 16 and a new Cabinet launched. USDJPY has traded in a narrow range recently. With the Obon summer holidays over, Japanese and overseas investor flows have been oddly mixed and balanced ahead of the end of the quarter, and market pricing has remained in a narrow range.

In this episode, Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, MUFG Bank Tokyo discusses Japan’s new administration, cross-border flows, and his views on USDJPY and JPY rates and JPY basis.

The pound took a big hit last week as no-deal Brexit fears built, bringing a period of GBP outperformance to an abrupt end. As UK-EU negotiation tensions continue and with the UK government threatening to override the Brexit withdrawal deal, Lee Hardman, currency analyst, gives his take on what is in store for sterling.

Over the pond in the U.S., the FOMC convenes this week; looser monetary policy is on the cards, but listen to hear how various scenarios may play out in the markets.  

An ambitious plan for clean energy and climate change under a Biden presidency has far-reaching implications for global oil markets.

Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, hones in on how a Biden administration could alter the contours of global oil markets and discusses his expectations for oil prices under various scenarios.