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In this regular podcast series, MUFG subject matter experts within our business discuss the forces, indications, and policies that impact the U.S. economy and financial markets, and provide updates to their economic outlooks and forecasts for the weeks, months, and years ahead.

June 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Edition)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, reviewed the economic backdrop and market sentiment heading into another critical week in the US. George made a comprehensive case that the jobs data will likely continue to soften with the unemployment rate notably moving much higher, maybe starting with the June NFP data release. George concludes by recapping his monthly report and noting the irony that uncertainty is lifting on the policy front in DC, yet the consumer is likely tapped out, arguing for the Fed to cut soon.

That said, George acknowledges everything has to go "perfect" for the Fed to cut in July. If the Fed doesn’t cut in July, George expects them to cut in September & argues the longer they wait, the more they will have to cut (which opens the possibility of a 50bp cut in September - 2024 Deja Vu).

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

June 2025 FOMC Preview Podcast Edition - It’s never “too late” to pivot (so long as it’s to the dovish side)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recapped an action-packed month full of uncertainty. Weak US fundamentals with the jobs data remaining mixed while inflation continues to come in softer suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve. George then previewed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting where he notes that the US data has deteriorated enough that the Fed may use this meeting to pivot towards a more dovish stance to gain flexibility to ease at future FOMC meetings.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The Great Whiplash

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest developments in US macro and markets which was covered in the last monthly titled "The Great Whiplash". George highlights that the constant policy shifts, especially on the trade front, has led to tight trading ranges - even as we sit at local highs in both stocks and rates. Given the constant news flow challenges, and that it pays to be tactical in this environment, George previews the upcoming NFP jobs report and what to expect and what it will mean for Fed policy options ahead.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

May 2025 FOMC Preview: Inaction is action (and a potential policy mistake)…

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas previews our expectation ahead of the May FOMC meeting. We believe that the Fed will skip for a third time in the cycle and have a difficult time threading the needle and making everyone happy at this upcoming meeting. If the Fed elects to stay on the sidelines to wait for data to confirm that further rate cuts are needed, they might realize that they will come too late. If the Fed messaging comes across as more hawkish than markets would like, it could result in risk assets to continue giving back recent returns.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

An April to Remember…

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recaps key market themes that have played out in markets during the epic month of April, drawing parallels to other historical market events. Additionally, he touches on fears of dedollarization, weak soft data, the question of when this will finally filter through to the hard data, and how the Fed could deal with slowing economic growth. To cap it off he notes what else to look out for as month end approaches with key labor data, macro data, and corporate earnings continue to roll in and the risks to markets.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Trump’s Tariff-palooza: Macro & Market Impacts…

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest tariff developments and potential implications for the economy and markets. As a reminder, a palooza is informally viewed as a large frenzied event, thus it’s apt to call this latest version a “tariff-palooza” as markets got jolted by the larger than expected and broad-based announcement on “Liberation Day.” Although the approach the administration has taken a tougher stance on fiscal spending and trade negotiations, it is directionally in line with our 2025 Outlook, given all the uncertainty that this latest tariff rounds have had on both investors and corporate America, unless the tariffs are not fully binding and or get negotiated away quickly, the recent volatility has raised our recession risks.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

March 2025 FOMC Preview: Not in a hurry to get worried

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps what has been driving market volatility as well as where he thinks broader markets may go in the short-run. Additionally, he goes over what to expect at the March FOMC meeting where the Fed likely conveys a neutral message as they are "not in a hurry" to cut rates or get worried about the recent market vol and financial conditions tightening.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

US Macro Insights February 2025 NFP Preview

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps our most recent monthly titled – The Ides of March where he highlights analysis on the Senate and House's Budget plans and risks to the fiscal outlook in the budget process. Additionally, George summarizes what to look out for in February's payroll number.  

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

US Macro Insights January 2025 CPI Preview Podcast Version

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps last week’s labor data where we received several important revisions to data and models. Additionally, George highlights what to look out for January's CPI report and concludes with what other potential catalysts to watch for.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus) Podcast Version

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes and recaps our monthly titled Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus), where in our special topic cover labor market dynamics and demographics. Furthermore, George discusses what to expect from this all-important NFP number on Friday. We conclude with what to look out for before the March Fed meeting and what will be influential for US fixed income.

If you can’t view the above media player, this podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Learn more

For more information,
contact us.

John Cooke
Head of Rates Sales, Americas
New York, NY
1-212-405-7353
John.Cooke@mufgsecurities.com

George Goncalves
Head of U.S. Macro Strategy
New York, NY
1-212-405-6687
George.Goncalves@mufgsecurities.com

The podcast content above is being provided for educational and informational purposes only. The information and comments are not the views or opinions of MUFG Union Bank, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Please consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your particular situation.